Major rally or the end of the bull run: what is next for BTC?
The price of the leading digital asset has lost some steam after hitting a new all-time high above $126,000. However, one crucial indicator suggests a new parabolic move could be knocking on the door.
Major Move in the Next 100 Days?
The technical analysis tool in question is Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands, which consist of upper and lower boundaries that show how far the price moves away from its average. According to X user Tony “The Bull” Severino, the lines have recently tightened to record levels.
Such a development suggests that BTC’s price has consolidated and could be poised for a massive move in either direction. The analyst assumed it may take approximately 100 days to “get a valid breakout or breakdown.”
“Whatever direction is chosen will lead to a trending move accompanied by high volatility,” he predicted.
Severino also warned investors that expanding from such a setup could result in “head fakes.” In other words, the price may briefly nosedive before taking off or vice versa.
“This has the potential to send Bitcoin parabolic, or put an end to the three-year mature bull rally,” he concluded.
Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios
The majority of analysts on X appear optimistic that BTC has yet to reach new peaks during this cycle. Friedrich and BitBull envisioned a pump to a fresh all-time high of $150,000 in the following months. The latter argued that “big money is now waiting for gold to form a local top,” predicting that the primary cryptocurrency will outperform the yellow metal in Q4.
The impressive inflows toward spot BTC ETFs since the beginning of the month, combined with the declining exchange reserves, support the bullish thesis. Just recently, the amount of assets stored on such platforms dipped to approximately 2.4 million, or a seven-year low. This means that an increasing number of investors are moving their holdings to self-custody wallets, which reduces the immediate selling pressure.
At the same time, some analysts believe a painful crash is also a plausible option. One example is Ali Martinez, who said that the worst-case scenario for BTC is to get rejected at $124,000 and then plummet to $96,000 and later collapse to $70,000.
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