Hedera (HBAR) hasn’t managed to register decent October (‘Uptober’) gains like some other major altcoins, including ETH and BNB. The token is down nearly 6% over the past 24 hours, showing growing weakness on shorter timeframes. Even with a 1.4% gain in the past seven days, the overall HBAR price trend still doesn’t lean completely bullish.
Despite that, large holders continue to add to their stacks — even as the broader market sentiment stays cautious.
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Whales Accumulate as Smart Money Steps Back
On-chain data shows a clear divide between long-term whale accumulation and short-term trader caution.
Addresses holding more than 10 million HBAR have increased from 129.18 to 130.96, while wallets with over 100 million HBAR grew from 38.46 to 39.56 since October 6.
That’s roughly 127.8 million HBAR — at minimum — added by whales, worth around $26.8 million at the current HBAR price.
This quiet buying from whales often signals accumulation during uncertainty, helping prevent steeper selloffs. But the optimism stops there.
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The Smart Money Index (SMI) — which tracks activity from historically successful traders — has flattened after dropping from its October 6 local peak. This means high-confidence investors are no longer positioning for a quick HBAR price rebound.
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Such divergence between whale accumulation and smart money retreating usually suggests a period of sideways or downward movement.
In simple terms, whales might be buying dips for the long term, but the absence of aggressive smart money signals that near-term price recovery looks unlikely.
HBAR Price Chart Shows Rising Wedge Risk
On the 12-hour chart, HBAR trades inside a rising wedge pattern, typically considered bearish. Prices are testing the lower trendline near $0.21, a key support zone that has held multiple times since late September.
If $0.21 breaks, the next downside targets lie at $0.20 and $0.19, marking a potential 10% dip from current levels. The zone around $0.20 could offer temporary support, but $0.19 remains the critical level to watch.
Adding to this, the Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator — which compares buyer and seller strength — has turned red again. A correction followed the last red shift on Sept 4 before bulls managed a short-lived recovery.
For now, the bears remain in control. A daily or 12-hour candle close above $0.23 would invalidate this bearish structure and hint at renewed strength.
Until that happens, HBAR’s best hope for avoiding a deeper correction lies with continued whale accumulation — and a change in sentiment from smart money.
