Polymarket is now allowing users to gamble on the outcome of TradFi stocks. Traders can place bets on whether or not a company of their choosing will increase or decrease in value on a given day.
As federal regulators increasingly signal that they’re prepared to offer “innovation exemptions” to firms like Polymarket, categories like this could expand dramatically. Still, such a proposition might include massive risks.
Polymarket’s Stock Bets
In the past few weeks, TradFi and Web-3 native firms alike have been trying to bridge the gap between these worlds in a variety of ways. Polymarket, an online predictions market, has been ahead of the curve, with the NYSE’s parent company investing billions into the firm.
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Today, social media rumors have begun claiming that Polymarket now allows bets on stock prices:
These rumors refer to a press release, which evidently hasn’t been made fully public, nor is there a relevant social media announcement. Still, the firm may have sent the document exclusively to certain outlets or clients without bringing it to broader circulation. One of these clients may have broken a press embargo early.
In any event, Polymarket indeed hosts bets on whether individual stocks will perform well or not.
Polymarket is structuring these stock bets in a fairly unique way. Each bet applies to a 24-hour window, allowing gamblers to guess whether the company’s value will fall or rise. Payouts will resolve each day, without the possibility for long-term plays like derivatives.
Small Change, Big Impact
Still, it’ll be interesting to see how Polymarket’s new stock category will evolve over time. The firm recently received a no-action letter from financial regulators, allowing its triumphant return to US markets despite past violations.
So-called “innovation exemptions” for crypto are a high priority for the Web3 space.
In other words, this regulatory green light could cause the program to become much larger. Polymarket is already exploring lucrative areas like sports gambling; outright stock trades could further supercharge its success.
However, without key guardrails, these bets could also lead to broader risks to the financial system.
All that is to say, crypto traders have a lot of reasons to be interested in Polymarket’s stock bets. This small change could signal much broader shifts in TradFi-Web3 interactions.
