However, the macro market has been helpful. September 2025 closed with a 3% gain!
We need to check a few things:
- Historic performance of $BTC in 2025.
- Past price action of the financial markets in consecutive rate cuts.
- Is another rate cut coming?
- What could be the fate of Q4?
Let’s start with the historic performance of Bitcoin in October:
- Out of the last 12 years, 10 years were bullish. This means Bitcoin has an 83% probability to pump in October.
- When Bitcoin pumps, the average return is around 21%.
- Bitcoin has pumped the lowest in 2022 (5%). Remember, 2022 was the worst bear market in the history of crypto.
- In 2019 and in 2024, Bitcoin pumped 10%.
- This means we can expect 14-16% pump in October 2025.
- If history holds, this can push Bitcoin to $122k.
Is another rate cut coming?
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, there is an 89% probability of a rate cut in October 2025.
In September, the Fed cut the interest rate by 0.25 basis points. This triggered a short-lived bullish momentum in the market.
It was short-lived because the bullish sentiment was weaker than the bearish sentiment.
Source: cmegroup
Historically, such rate cuts have triggered massive rallies in the financial markets.
Check the chart below.
But what will happen if the S&P 500 is at an all-time high. Since 1984, the Fed has cut rates 28 times when the S&P 500 was within 3% of an all-time high. After the rate cut, the market pumped an average of 13% in 1 year. Also, whenever this situation happened, the market pumped 93% of the time.
So, what can we expect from Q4-2025? Eric Trump says Q4 will be “unbelievable” for your crypto bags. Historically, out of the last 12 Q4s, 8 were bullish. On bullish Q4s, the average return was above 85%.
Based on volatility patterns, positive month frequency, and YTD performance, we identified some similarities.
2024 shows a similar pattern compared to 2025.
October 2024 was moderately bullish with a 10% gain. 2024 Q4 was extremely bullish with a massive 47% gain.
Even in 2023, Bitcoin pumped 28% in October and 56% in Q4.
The post-halving narrative is also strong in 2025.
2025 is a post-halving year following the 2024 halving. Here are the previous post-halving years and the performance of Bitcoin.
- 2013 (post-2012 halving): October = 60% and Q4 = 475%
- 2017 (post-2016 halving): October = 47% and Q4 = 215%
- 2021 (post-2020 halving): October = 39% and Q4 = 5.41%
This means, on average, Post-Halving October has been extremely bullish.
We do not think Bitcoin will pump 30% in October. A moderate target for October is 14%. And if the conditions are ideal, BTC can pump up to 20% too.
Disclaimer
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment, and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies presented are the thoughts and opinions of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may differ from yours. We are not responsible for any losses you may incur due to any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments; therefore, please conduct your due diligence. Copyright Altcoin Buzz Pte Ltd.
