- New US rules to spark a wave of ETF launches.
- Stablecoin assets seen hitting $500 billion next year as adoption surges.
Crypto is heading into 2026 with a perfect mix of regulatory green lights, supportive monetary policies, and surging institutional demand.
That’s according to a new CF Benchmarks report seen by DL News, which predicts that Bitcoin will jump 20% to $148,500 by year-end.
It also forecasts that exchange-traded funds will double in number to 80, and stablecoins are on track to reach $500 billion in circulation.
The report says digital assets are moving into a “maturity phase” where price discovery comes from strategic allocation decisions and not speculation or hype like in previous years.
The prediction comes as the overall market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies hovers around $4.3 trillion, according to CoinGecko. Meanwhile, the circulating value of stablecoins has smashed $300 billion, DefiLlama data shows.
Several factors have contributed to the surge. Chief among them? Macroeconomic uncertainties over global trade caused by US President Donald Trump’s policies, his questioning of the Federal Reserve’s independence, fiscal policies, and the government shutdown.
These factors have amounted to what analysts refer to as “the debasement trade,” which has seen investors scramble to hoover up safe haven assets like gold and Bitcoin.
Trump has also fuelled the rally by backing blockchain-based businesses. Since his second term began, he has backed several pro-industry policies, signed a stablecoin bill into law, and appointed crypto supporters to key positions in government.
‘Further adoption and growth’
CF Benchmarks, which is owned by crypto exchange Kraken and powers indexes used by major ETF issuers including BlackRock and Fidelity, is not alone in its bullishness.
Laurent Benayoun, CEO of crypto market making firm Acheron Trading, told DL News that “ETFs net inflows exert institutional buying pressure, and associated direct positive price action, on their underlying spot assets.”
“Continued support from the US administration and interest rate cuts will lead to further adoption and growth,” Benayoun said.
Next growth phase
After years of uncertainty, the US policy landscape has flipped.
The Genius Act, signed in July, established a federal framework for dollar-backed stablecoins, sparking $30 billion in inflows and sending total stablecoin assets toward $350 billion by year-end.
CF Benchmarks expects that figure to reach $500 billion in 2026, as Visa, Mastercard, and PayPal integrate regulated stablecoins into global payment networks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to attract capital. The CME derivatives exchange is also adding new Solana and XRP futures options, expanding institutional exposure to emerging tokens.
The report likens this regulatory moment to the “Swensen era” of ETFs in the 2000s, when new listing rules triggered an exponential rise in adoption.
Monetary tailwinds
The Fed’s first rate cuts in nine months, combined with signals of further easing into 2026, create a supportive backdrop for risk assets. CF Benchmarks expects two additional cuts this year, bringing policy rates near 3.25%.
Despite lingering inflation risks, the firm argues that Bitcoin remains at the lower bound of its fair-value range, currently between $85,000 and $212,000, offering a tactical entry point for investors positioning for debasement hedges.
The report also points to tokenised equities and real-world assets as the next frontier. With over $40 billion in tokenised assets already issued, CF Benchmarks expects that figure to double in 12 months, with Solana-based xStocks leading early adoption.
“Digital assets are no longer a side bet,” the report said.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 1.4% over the past 24 hours to trade at $122,434.
- Ethereum is down 4.3% over the past 24 hours, trading at $4,478.
What we’re reading
Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email lance@dlnews.com.
